2020 outlook: turbulence ahead for air cargo
Policy Pulse - 8 October 2019 - George Anjaparidze
Forecasters are licking their wounds after another year of missed projections. All the major crystal ball gazers got their 2019 figures wrong. Growth of 4 to 5% in FTKs will not materialize. The latest quarterly report from the International Air Transport Association indicates that, so far, industry-wide FTKs fell by about 4% in 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. While the pace of the decline in recent months has slowed, it is still too soon to be optimistic.
New export orders have fallen to their lowest levels since October 2012. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high – as measured by the frequency of phrases in press reports on monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty (see Chart). If economic uncertainty deters investment, it can have disproportionately adverse impact on trade and in particular air cargo demand, since capital goods that make up investment tend to have higher import content and are also more likely to create demand for air cargo.
Given this backdrop, managing volatility and policy uncertainty can make or break a business.
At the Executive Summit of the International Air Cargo Association, George Anjaparidze, CEO of Veritas Global, will moderate a discussion on the outlook for 2020 and approaches to managing volatility. What can industry associations do to help their members manage volatility related risks? Is there a role for policy makers? What can the logistics supply chain do to respond? What tools are available?
For more information on the event check out: TIACA Executive Summit
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