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Policy Pulse

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Join our readership of thought leaders and policy makers by subscribing to Policy Pulse, an update on trending policy issues in climate change, international conflict economics and infrastructure. 

Policy Pulse - 14 November 2019 - George Anjaparidze


The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements published a Veritas Global policy brief providing rare insight into the inner workings of the airline industry. The brief, The Extraordinary Agreement on International Aviation, explains the key role played by the airline industry in the design of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).


The scheme addresses the growth in total CO2 emissions from international aviation above 2020 levels. CORSIA will save the aviation industry tens of billions of US dollars each year by avoiding a costly patchwork of overlapping and distortive measures. The worst-case patchwork scenario estimated that climate-policy costs would be equivalent of about 10% of industry revenues in 2030. In comparison, carbon neutral growth from 2020 would cost the industry less than 1% of industry revenues in 2030.


For CORSIA to function effectively, there is an urgent need to secure a credible source of carbon offsets. ICAO is currently working towards an agreement on emission unit criteria. Offsets used by aviation need to be consistent with the broader climate-policy framework under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and ensure no unintended double-counting of emission reduction efforts. In the medium term, it may be necessary to introduce adjustments to CORSIA.


Although challenges remain, CORSIA represents an extraordinary achievement. A key focus of industry and policy makers needs to be on ensuring that CORSIA is fully implemented with the broadest possible participation. This will enable international aviation to address its CO2 emissions while continuing to deliver a critical service for the modern economy.



 
 
 

Policy Pulse - 8 October 2019 - George Anjaparidze

Forecasters are licking their wounds after another year of missed projections. All the major crystal ball gazers got their 2019 figures wrong. Growth of 4 to 5% in FTKs will not materialize. The latest quarterly report from the International Air Transport Association indicates that, so far, industry-wide FTKs fell by about 4% in 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. While the pace of the decline in recent months has slowed, it is still too soon to be optimistic.


New export orders have fallen to their lowest levels since October 2012. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high – as measured by the frequency of phrases in press reports on monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty (see Chart). If economic uncertainty deters investment, it can have disproportionately adverse impact on trade and in particular air cargo demand, since capital goods that make up investment tend to have higher import content and are also more likely to create demand for air cargo.


Given this backdrop, managing volatility and policy uncertainty can make or break a business.

At the Executive Summit of the International Air Cargo Association, George Anjaparidze, CEO of Veritas Global, will moderate a discussion on the outlook for 2020 and approaches to managing volatility. What can industry associations do to help their members manage volatility related risks? Is there a role for policy makers? What can the logistics supply chain do to respond? What tools are available?


For more information on the event check out: TIACA Executive Summit


About Veritas Global: Our vision is to have a positive impact on the world through truthful advice informed by robust analysis. We are a premier provider of tailored solutions on climate change, international conflict economics and infrastructure. 


 
 
 

Policy Pulse - 16 July 2019 - George Anjaparidze

On 8 July 2019 the ban on direct flights between Russia and Georgia went into effect. Flight ban harms both Russia and Georgia.


Russian airlines will lose $225 million in revenue per year. Regional hubs such as Minks, Riga, Almaty and Istanbul will benefit from higher transfer traffic. But consumers worse off and tourism spending in Georgia lower by $111 million per year. For more details see links below:





About Veritas Global: Our vision is to have a positive impact on the world through truthful advice informed by robust analysis. We are a premier provider of tailored solutions on climate change, international conflict economics and infrastructure.

 
 
 
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